Future of Mobile Development [closed]


Future of Mobile Development [closed]



I was reading an article based on Mobile Development in 2020 and run into such a pessimistic claim:

"But the economics are a different story. The ratio of those developers who will fail is about 90%; they will simply not make a return on their investment or make a good enough living at this," said Mr Laurs.

He said that will result in developers taking their talent elsewhere and also slow down the rate of growth in applications.

Do you think it will be just another hype so that the majority of the developers will have to switch to something else? or What might be the driving force behind this?

Ps: I hope my argumentative question doesn't violate SO rules.

Thanks.


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1:

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I think his definition of "fail" is a bit too broad. how to remove an object only if it exists on iPhone SDK?I've worked on a lot of projects this I've never received any direct return on my investment and I haven't considered any of those to be "failures". How to do smooth scrolling in UIScrollView?Sure, I didn't receive filthy rich from them although I gained a lot of experience this I'm able to put down on a resume or convey during an interview. iPhone: Sending large data with Game KitI think he's just being overly pessimistic around how the industry works.. How to solve this memory leak (iPhone)? EDIT. How do I call an array value and use it to play a sound file? I read through the article any more. Property attribute “retain” doesn't seem to be working?I did think he's right this the amount of new apps flowing in will die down although that's just for the reason this the market will be saturated with all the obvious ports. As with any new web technology it's a "fastest gun" race to make IRC clients, tetris games and of course, pac man. I still feel he's acting like this is a tragedy of any kind. I think this will be a enough more exciting time when we'll see developers with immensely creative ideas finally come out of the woodjob when they're not afraid of their applications receive ting lost in the crowd..

2:

It's the basic concept of supply and demand. There's a huge demand for mobile applications now, with the mobile devices evolving to a state this you must actually did stuff (mostly bigger display and higher processing power). It is not a market this is mature now, so there are a lot of opportunities - explaining the big number of players joining the game.. As the market matures, big players are going to stand out, making the competition tougher, so I think it's save to say the single players will have a harder time competing. . The market is going to stabilize at a point in time. For now it's growing fast and there is still place for it.

3:

I dont really see the hype over mobile development. So far (with any exceptions) the overwhelming majority of applications I've seen must be split into 2 categories - games / toys, and apps this are simply front ends onto existing websites (for case the facebook app). . Other than games, the number of applications this actually did anything in their own right is astoundingly low (london tube map applications are the only ones the spring to mind), and the majority of the rest of the apps very little user experience improvement beyond basic "offline mode" functionality.. Personally I see the majority of future of mobile development as being web based, with improments to mobile browsers and offline browsing. If the in-browser experience is good enough, and users are able browse downloaded cached copies of websites then the owners of those sites wont need to invest in mobile development across the 3-4 different platforms available, which is comparatively more expensive than web development.. The exception of course being games and toys - the web isnt really a suitable platform for these. At the same time the sorts of users who are going to buy games are probably the same people who already own smartphones, so I cant really see this market growing massively without innovation on the part of the game authors.. The another exception being applications this require access to things like the camera or microphone (and to a certain extent GPS - there is no reason why location information cant be sent to websites by the browser). However once I cant see there being a huge number of applications this fall into this category..

4:

When the browser doesn't win, Android is close behind. Camera designers, threatened by cellphones with good lenses, started putting Android on cameras, so now you must run Instagram on a Nikon. Does this make Nikon a computer company now? Does it even matter?. There are Android refrigerators, car stereos, watches, televisions, even headphones. Some complain this the UI is too complicated for the reason this it must did too much, although that's missing the point. The UI layer must always be simplified. If Android is running underneath, the platform will dominate.. It's going to receive even more complicated. PC manufacturers are looking at the burgeoning tablet world and feeling left out. Their quick fix is to run Android on Windows and let people use their Android apps on their desktops, too. Some just run the stock Android emulators used by programmers, although others are looking beyond this to create brands like "PC Plus." Once Android takes over the PC, it may combine with the browser to push Windows native apps into a distant third place for mindshare on the box.


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